The project aims to creat a set of tools, methods, models, and algorithms that allow detecting, monitoring, modeling, mitigating social disasters caused by terrorism and catastrophes of different nature (natural, technogenic, etc.).
Other objectives of the project are the developing of the methodology for scenario analysis regarding the field of social disasters and to characterize the traffic related to disasters on SNs (social networks). Theoretic goals such as the clarifying of the definition and use of the concept of resilience and improved SNs search systems are also pertinent to the project.
The goal of the project is to apply modified qualitative methods of the foresight methodology (Delphi method, morphological analysis method, analytical hierarchy method) and prediction (such as neuro-fuzzy predictors) to develop models suitable for description of the social disasters (including stochastic, cellular automata, and neuro-fuzzy models). These models will then be used to construct scenarios for the social disaster, allowing to assess the mitigation methods and to provide decision-making support regarding the best actions to reduce the negative consequences of a social disaster and increase resilience.